One of the first questions in any public procurement: does this fall above or below the European threshold? The answer determines which procedure applies, which deadlines govern the process, and whether the contract must be published on TED. Yet estimation errors are common — potentially rendering the entire procedure unlawful after the fact.
In this article we explain how thresholds are established, which amounts currently apply, and how to correctly calculate the estimated value. We also address the prohibition on artificial splitting.
European thresholds: origin and revision
The European thresholds are revised every two years by the European Commission. The amounts are derived from the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) fixed in the WTO Government Procurement Agreement (GPA). The Commission converts the SDR values to euros based on exchange rate movements over the preceding two years. This explains why thresholds sometimes rise and sometimes fall — it is not a policy choice but a currency correction.
The revised thresholds are published as delegated regulations that amend the amounts in Directives 2014/24/EU, 2014/25/EU and 2014/23/EU.
Thresholds 2024-2025
| Contract type | Central government | Other authorities |
|---|---|---|
| Supplies and services | €143,000 | €221,000 |
| Works | €5,538,000 | €5,538,000 |
| Social and specific services | €750,000 | €750,000 |
These amounts apply from 1 January 2024 through 31 December 2025 and are exclusive of VAT.
Thresholds 2026-2027
| Contract type | Central government | Other authorities |
|---|---|---|
| Supplies and services | €140,000 | €216,000 |
| Works | €5,404,000 | €5,404,000 |
| Concessions | €5,404,000 | €5,404,000 |
The new thresholds are laid down in Delegated Regulations (EU) 2025/2150, 2025/2151 and 2025/2152 and apply from 1 January 2026 through 31 December 2027. The slight decrease compared to the previous period reflects the exchange rate evolution of the euro against the SDR.
Estimated value: how do you calculate it?
The estimated value is the total amount exclusive of VAT that the authority expects to pay over the entire duration of the contract. That sounds straightforward, but the law prescribes that a range of elements must be included in the estimation.
What counts towards the estimate?
The following elements are added to the estimate:
Options and renewals. If the specifications provide for optional services or renewal periods, their value counts towards the estimate. A contract of €100,000 per year with two possible one-year renewals has an estimated value of €300,000 — not €100,000.
Prizes and premiums. Any premiums or fees paid to candidates or tenderers are added to the estimate.
Lots. If a contract is divided into lots, the values of all lots are aggregated to determine whether the European threshold has been reached. The fact that individual lots fall below the threshold is irrelevant if the total exceeds it.
Recurring contracts
For supplies and services that recur regularly or that are intended for renewal within a given period, the estimated value is calculated on the basis of:
- the total value of similar contracts over the preceding twelve months, or
- the estimated value for the coming twelve months
The authority chooses the method that gives the most representative result. This prevents a series of small orders from systematically staying under the radar.
Framework agreements
For framework agreements, the estimated value is the maximum value of all individual contracts expected to be awarded during the term of the framework agreement. Not the amount of the first call-off, but the total over the full duration.
The prohibition on artificial splitting
Article 5 of Directive 2014/24/EU and Article 7 of the Belgian Act of 17 June 2016 prohibit designing a procurement in such a way that it escapes the application of European rules, unless justified by objective reasons.
In concrete terms: an authority may not split a €250,000 contract into three separate contracts of €85,000 each to stay below the supply threshold. If the services are functionally related, they must be aggregated.
What is permitted?
Division into lots is not only permitted but actively encouraged — the law requires the authority to justify its decision if it chooses not to divide the contract into lots. However, even with lot division, the total value of all lots is aggregated to determine which regime applies.
Small lots exception
A lot may be excluded from the European regime if two cumulative conditions are met:
- the individual lot is below €80,000 for supplies and services or €1,000,000 for works, and
- the combined value of the excluded lots amounts to less than 20% of the total contract.
Note: this exception does not relieve the authority of the obligation to correctly estimate and publish the contract. It only means that the European procedures are not mandatory for those specific lots.
When does the estimation take place?
The estimation must be made at the moment the contract notice is dispatched, or — if there is no notice — at the moment the authority initiates the procurement procedure. It is the value at that moment that counts. If prices rise or fall after the estimation, that does not change the threshold test.
This also means the estimation must be documented. In case of a challenge, the authority must be able to demonstrate that the estimation was made in an objective and substantiated manner.
Practical tips
Document your estimation. Record per contract how you arrived at the estimated amount. Use market research, historical prices or indicative quotes. In the event of an appeal, this is your evidence that the estimation was realistic.
Include options and renewals. This is often forgotten. A three-year contract with an option for two years’ renewal has an estimation over five years, not three.
Aggregate similar contracts. If you regularly purchase the same type of supply or service, you aggregate the values over twelve months. Placing separate orders to stay below the threshold constitutes artificial splitting.
Check the thresholds with each new contract. Thresholds change every two years. Use the amounts applicable at the time of dispatch of the notice, not those from a previous year.